Should I go up, should I go down?

Analysts see breakup of UBS as more likely

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/03/business/invest04.php

UBS is standing on a land mine that will explode if it doesn't raise more capital. Citigroup and UBS will need to split up into "bad bank" and "good bank". The "bad bank" businesses will eventually go down to be survived by the "good bank" business. These are the very likely scenarios for these banks given that both are already contemplating asset sales. Looks like most analyst are still sugar-coating the situation (compared to few brave ones, read Whitney) and buying the banks some time and in turn keeping the markets guessing. Wish more analysts were more forthright.

Bottom of subprime crisis not yet reached, study suggests
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/03/business/rtrcol04.php

The study suggests much gloomier picture of the US economy. The banks face big loan losses - "far more dramatic" than most bank executives and ratings agencies have forecast, said Whitney of Oppenheimer. If her forecast/analysis were to come true ,like the last quarter forecast, it would cause a market crash or DOW would drop at least another 10-15%.

Mr. Market's whims

For last 2 days Mr. Market (read Dow) couldn't decide where should it exactly go. It was so confused. For today it decided to stay almost close to where it started? With the earnings season beginning to start and Ambac's future AAA rating in jeopardy (??) , will Mr. Market visit 11500?

Thought of the Day

If a man begins with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
But if he will be content to begin with doubts,
He shall end in certainties. -- [Francis Bacon 1561-1626]